Full story: https://grafa.com/insights/united-states-trump-and-the-future-energy-306320
One of the first casualties of a Trump administration could be the federal incentives that have helped drive the surge in electric vehicle sales in recent years.
This could spell more bad news for Australian lithium producers.
The Trump camp has long criticised the Biden administration’s green energy policies, derisively referring to them as part of a “green new scam.”
This rhetoric paves the way for significant rollbacks of tax credits and subsidies that have supported both consumers and manufacturers in the EV market.
If the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under Trump eases emissions standards, automakers may no longer face the same pressure to ramp up production of electric and hybrid vehicles.
As a result, we may see automakers scaling back their ambitious EV plans, adjusting their strategies to reflect a more lenient regulatory environment.
While many car companies will continue to innovate, the pace of the transition to electric mobility could slow, stalling the momentum that has been building in the sector for years.
Renewables at risk
Alongside the potential deceleration of the EV revolution, the outlook for renewable energy is equally bleak.
Trump’s focus on expanding fossil fuel production — particularly oil and natural gas — could shift critical investments away from cleaner energy alternatives like wind and solar power.
The president’s pledge to open up more drilling permits and lift restrictions on natural gas exports signals a renewed commitment to carbon-intensive energy sources, further eroding the push for a sustainable energy grid.
The future of offshore wind development also hangs in the balance.
Trump’s previous opposition to offshore wind projects, citing environmental concerns, suggests that new leases for such initiatives could be blocked under his administration. Given that offshore wind energy has been touted as a key component of America’s renewable energy strategy, halting its growth would be a significant setback.
Legislative roadblocks
While Trump’s executive powers may allow him to enact rapid changes, the legislative landscape could prove more challenging.
Many Republicans in Congress may be unwilling to completely dismantle climate policies, particularly those associated with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has spurred investment in clean energy.
However, the Trump administration could still alter the eligibility criteria for clean energy tax credits, making them less accessible or skewed in favour of fossil fuel industries.
This would further shift the energy sector’s balance toward traditional energy sources.
A step backward for clean energy?
In short, Trump’s election represents a formidable obstacle to the U.S. transition to a sustainable energy future.
The anticipated rollback of supportive policies for electric vehicles and renewable energy could stunt progress in these vital sectors.
As the administration embarks on implementing its fossil fuel-friendly agenda, the EV and renewable energy industries will face a rapidly changing environment, one that could significantly alter their trajectories.
The next few years will be critical.
America’s ability to maintain momentum toward cleaner transportation and energy solutions will depend on whether it can weather the shift back to a more traditional energy policy framework or whether forces within industry and Congress can resist the rollback of climate initiatives.
The challenges ahead are significant, but so too are the stakes — for the environment, for innovation, and for future generations.
